Summary
Tulsa Metro employment has steadily grown since the end of the pandemic (Figure 1), indicating consistent job growth. However, with expectations of a slowing national economy, it is forecast that this growth will plateau in 2025, with a decline anticipated in the final quarter of the year. A general national slowdown has been anticipated due to the economy reaching full employment and the impact of higher interest rates. The expected imposition of trade tariffs and deportations of undocumented immigrants are forecast to significantly further slow economic growth across the nation.
490
7
6
480
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470
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460
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450
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440
1
430
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420
-1
%Change-Annualized Tulsa Total Nonfarm Employment (thousands)
Figure 1. Tulsa Employment Growth (History 2024Q3)
Long-Run Forecast Comparison
As shown in Figure 2, after robust growth in 2022 and early 2023, growth began to moderate both locally and nationally, with further slowing of growth in 2024. The forecast includes growth turning negative, with slight employment declines expected through 2027 both locally and nationally. Despite this trend, Tulsa Metro employment growth is predicted to outpace national growth. However, Tulsa County employment is expected to lag both the metro and the nation. There is considerable uncertainty though related to policy and world events. The forecasts in Figure 2 incorporate expectations for the imposition of additional tariffs on imports and reduced net international immigration, as discussed below.
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