1.12
1.1
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.02
1
US Nonfarm Employment Tulsa Nonfarm Employment Tulsa County Nonfarm Employment
Figure 2. Long-Run Employment Growth Comparison (2022Q1=1) Source of U.S. Nonfarm Employment Forecast: S&P Global Inc.
Expected Change in Policy Environment
Our source of national economic forecasts, S&P Global Inc., expects that the imposition of tariffs and the deportation of undocumented immigrants will increase prices, slow economic growth, and increase unemployment. S&P Global Inc. assumes a 10% tariff on all imports and a 30% tariff on imports from China, with tariffs taking effect in the second quarter of 2025 and becoming fully implemented over four quarters. Deportations and border enforcement are projected to reduce net international migration by five hundred thousand per year for the next four years. Consequently, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause its easing cycle in mid-2025, weakening demand in the short term. A reduced immigrant population is forecast to decrease consumption demand, housing demand, and housing supply. Figure 3 illustrates S&P Global’s forecast of the percentage differences in key US variables resulting from the imposition of additional tariffs and reduced international immigration. Over the next two years, US employment is expected to decrease by approximately 0.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) is anticipated to rise by over 2%. Although nominal wages and salaries are expected to increase, they are not projected to keep pace with the rise in prices, leading to a decrease in real wages and salaries of about 1%.
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