Figure 4 compares the predicted policy effects on employment for the nation, the Tulsa Metro, and Tulsa County. Initially, the predicted employment losses are slightly larger for the nation. During an intermediate period, the predicted employment losses are greater locally, while in the long run, the predicted losses again are greater for the nation. The maximum employment loss for the Tulsa Metro approximately reaches 0.6 percent.
Summary Table
Table 1 shows the annual growth rates of key economic measures for the nation, Tulsa Metro, and Tulsa County for 2022 through 2025. From the table, we see slowing growth both nationally and locally across the economic indicators from 2023 to 2024, with forecasts of further slowing of growth in 2025. We also see consistently rising unemployment rates each year both nationally and locally, which is expected to continue in 2025.
Forecast Risks
There are many risks to the forecast, both to the upside and downside. Sluggish economic growth continues to plague China, reducing world demand, including for oil. Geopolitical events continue to pose risks to the world economy. The newest and source of uncertainty though is political with the election of Donald Trump as president. S&P Global Inc. identifies three major areas of uncertainty. First, is the uncertainty surrounding tax policy. Permanent extension of the
Table 1. Key Tulsa Economic Indicators (Last Historical Period: 2024Q3 for Tulsa and U.S. employment and unemployment, U.S. income, and U.S. real GDP; 2024Q2 for Tulsa County employment. 2023 for Tulsa Metro real GDP and income) Economic Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025
2.90
3.19
1.86
0.73
Tulsa Metro Nonfarm Employment
2.83
1.79
1.09
0.36
Tulsa County Nonfarm Employment
4.28
2.32
1.61
0.87
U.S. Nonfarm Employment
3.15
3.24
3.58
3.90
Tulsa Metro Unemployment Rate
3.05
3.20
3.49
3.77
Tulsa County Unemployment Rate
3.65
3.64
4.03
4.44
U.S. Unemployment Rate
10.20
5.62
3.94
3.04
Tulsa Metro Nominal Personal Income
3.13
5.95
5.47
5.16
U.S. Nominal Personal Income
8.14
7.03
4.43
4.07
Tulsa Metro Nominal Wages and Salaries
7.01
5.61
6.01
5.61
U.S. Wages and Salaries
0.95
4.44
3.38
1.94
Tulsa Metro Real GDP
2.51
2.89
2.72
1.91
U.S. Real GDP
0.80
1.04
0.93
1.03
Tulsa Metro Population
0.70
1.05
0.99
0.62
U.S. Population
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