personal tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is part of the S&P Global’s baseline forecast. Other changes discussed by the incoming administration are not part of the baseline forecast and if they were enacted would boost near-term GDP growth, reduce the projected path of the unemployment rate, and raise inflation. The second source of uncertainty is the proposal of a 60 percent tariff on imports from mainland China and 10 to 20 percent on imports from the rest of the world, which exceed those assumed in the baseline forecast. The third major area of uncertainty is the prospect of mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants that exceeds the baseline assumption of a reduction of five hundred thousand net international immigrants per year. If the baseline tariffs and deportations are exceeded, the expected result would be slower economic growth, higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and a higher rate of inflation.
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