Economic Outlook 2024 Update

Table 1. Annualized Quarterly Growth in Key US and Oklahoma Economic Indicators (%): 2023Q1-2023Q4 (Last Historical Period: 2024Q2 for employment and unemployment; and 2024 Q1 for income, real GDP, and price indices) 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4

4.16

3.30

4.69

3.99

Oklahoma Real GDP

2.24

2.06

4.86

3.40

US Real GDP

5.00

2.20

0.26

1.12

Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment

2.35

1.96

1.72

1.59

US Nonfarm Employment

7.21

2.27

4.09

4.68

Oklahoma Nominal Personal Income

6.81

4.02

3.86

2.83

US Nominal Personal Income

10.96 4.95

4.90

8.47

Oklahoma Nominal Wages and Salaries

9.07

5.93

6.43

1.98

US Nominal Wages and Salaries

3.09

2.88

3.31

3.65

Oklahoma Unemployment Rate (Level)

3.52 3.75 4.96 4.52

3.56 3.04 3.66 4.99

3.70 3.43 2.04 5.26

3.77 2.73 2.04 5.33

US Unemployment Rate (Level)

US Consumer Price Index

US Core Personal Consumption Deflator

Federal Funds Interest Rate (Level)

Table 2. Annualized Quarterly Forecast Growth in Key US and Oklahoma Economic Indicators (%): 2024Q1-2024Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4

2.39

2.54

2.20

1.97

Oklahoma Real GDP

1.41

2.10

1.55

1.42

US Real GDP

3.38

2.07

1.19

0.87

Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment

1.98

1.55

1.36

0.75

US Nonfarm Employment

7.48

4.34

4.50

4.94

Oklahoma Nominal Personal Income

7.00

4.56

4.87

4.82

US Nominal Personal Income

6.64

5.63

4.84

4.69

Oklahoma Nominal Wages and Salaries

5.55

5.55

5.23

4.41

US Nominal Wages and Salaries

3.49

3.36

3.46

3.55

Oklahoma Unemployment Rate (Level)

3.78 3.81 3.74 5.33

3.96 3.04 2.81 5.33

4.04 1.92 2.34 5.33

4.09 1.86 2.27 5.30

US Unemployment Rate (Level)

US Consumer Price Index

US Core Personal Consumption Deflator

Federal Funds Interest Rate (Level)

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