3.4
12
9.9
3.3
10
3.2
8
3.1
6
3.8
3.0
4
2.4
2.9
2
2.8
0
2.7
-2
2.6
-4
2.5
-6
%Change
CPI
Figure 2. U.S. CPI (82-84=1) (History through 2025M6) (Left axis-CPI level; Right Axis-annualized percent CPI growth)
Energy Outlook
Partly fueling Oklahoma’s growth since the COVID -19 pandemic shutdown of the economy was a rebound in the energy sector. As shown in Figure 3, after recovering from the pandemic, both oil and natural gas prices peaked in late 2022. In its current (July 2025) Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts natural gas prices to remain above levels experienced in 2023 and 2024 because of growth in demand, led by liquefied natural gas exports, and a slight decline in supply. Oil prices are expected to decline further throughout the period with the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts in production. As shown in Figure 4, the rebound in energy prices increased energy sector employment in both the state and the nation. Oklahoma’s energy sector employment declined earlier and by a greater percentage than oil and gas employment nationwide, going into the pandemic. The recovery in Oklahoma’s energy employment similarly has fallen behind that of the nation, which is forecast to continue. By 2026Q2, national energy sector employment is forecast to rise within twenty-two percent of its 2019Q1 level , while Oklahoma’s is expected to decline to nearly one-half of its 2019Q1 level. According to Baker Hughes Inc., the drilling rig count in Oklahoma increased from a low of 10 during the pandemic to approximately 70 at the end of 2022, which was less than one-half of the most recent peak of 145 active rigs during November 2018. The number of rigs stands at 42 as of July 25, 2025, an increase of nine from one year ago.
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