Oklahoma Economic Outlook
Total nonfarm wage and salary employment in both the nation and state now exceed their pre- pandemic peaks by more than five percent (Figure 5). Because U.S. employment initially declined more during the onset of the pandemic, its initial rebound was much stronger than Oklahoma’s . U.S. employment had also grown more robustly since the pandemic recession, though Oklahoma employment grew faster and nearly caught up to U.S. employment in the first quarter of 2025 in terms of ratios to the 2019 quarter-one levels. Corresponding to the forecast of a national economic slowdown, employment growth (seasonally adjusted) in both the nation and the state is forecast to slow in 2025. As also shown in Figure 6, because of the decline in the energy sector, Oklahoma’s employment growth is forecast to fall below that of the nation through 2026Q2.
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1.05
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Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment S&P Global US Nonfarm Employment
Figure 4. Oklahoma and U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Wage and Salary (2019Q1=1) (History through 2025Q2)
Stronger employment growth (over one and one-half percent) through 2026Q2 is forecast for Accommodation and Food Services, Arts, Recreation, and Entertainment, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Other Information Services, while sectors such as the Federal Government, Machinery Manufacturing, Mining and Logging, Non-Aerospace Transportation Equipment Manufacturing, and Publishing Industries, are projected to experience dramatic (over four percent) declines.
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