Economic Outlook 2025 Summer Final

Table 1. Key U.S. and Oklahoma Economic Indicators, Annualized Quarterly Growth, except for the Unemployment and Fed Funds Rate (%): Fiscal Year 2025 (Last Historical Period: 2025Q2, except for Oklahoma real GDP and income (2025Q1)) 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2

3.11

3.31

-1.01

1.24

Oklahoma Real GDP

3.07

2.45

-0.50

1.31

U.S. Real GDP

0.68

3.06

2.58

0.12

Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment

0.86

1.29

1.32

1.05

U.S. Nonfarm Employment

1.33

5.32

9.08

2.29

Oklahoma Nominal Personal Income

3.44

4.05

5.15

4.88

U.S. Nominal Personal Income

0.64

6.92

5.83

3.29

Oklahoma Nominal Wages and Salaries

1.99

6.68

5.20

5.11

U.S. Nominal Wages and Salaries

3.32

3.24

3.23

3.01

Oklahoma Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate (Level) U.S. Consumer Price Index Inflation

4.17 1.40 2.19 5.26

4.15 3.03 2.64 4.65

4.10 3.78 3.53 4.33

4.18 1.82 2.71 4.35

U.S. Core PCE Deflator Inflation

Federal Funds Interest Rate (Level)

Note: PCE: personal consumption expenditure

Table 2. Key U.S. and Oklahoma Economic Indicators, Annualized Quarterly Growth, except for the unemployment and Fed Funds Rate (%): Fiscal Year 2026 25Q3 25Q4 26Q1 26Q2

1.61

0.94

1.27

1.16

Oklahoma Real GDP

1.20

1.79

2.24

2.51

U.S. Real GDP

0.45 -0.31

0.01

0.10

Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment

0.66

0.16

0.21

0.23

U.S. Nonfarm Employment

1.47

2.34

5.25

3.80

Oklahoma Nominal Personal Income

4.99

5.08

6.10

4.51

U.S. Nominal Personal Income

3.78

3.44

3.61

3.15

Oklahoma Nominal Wages and Salaries

4.52

3.92

4.97

3.65

U.S. Nominal Wages and Salaries

3.29

3.61

3.67

3.70

Oklahoma Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate (Level) U.S. Consumer Price Index Inflation

4.29 3.15 4.88 4.35

4.40 2.32 3.12 4.30

4.48 2.28 2.49 3.90

4.54 2.35 2.02 3.58

U.S. Core PCE Deflator Inflation

Federal Funds Interest Rate (Level)

Note: PCE: personal consumption expenditure

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